A black inner city voter who is not a democratic voter, is more likely to be a swing voter than a republican voter. First-time voters and swing voters are usually credited for helping Jesse Ventura win the Minnesota gubernatorial election in 1998. target the 94 million eligible voters that didn't vote in 2012?
Swing voters occasionally play a huge part in elections. There is a perception that swing voters are primarily motivated by self-interest rather than values or ideology and so are particularly susceptible to pork barreling.
Change ), You are commenting using your Twitter account. You ask about candidates they voted for. The so-called Rendell strategy, however much it might be derided among the liberals, is founded on a solid premise, for better or worse, given the way current election is shaping up. In raw numbers, a projected 32 million Hispanics will be eligible to vote in 2020, compared with 30 million blacks.
Most swing voters are this. : Key Groups that Decide National Elections", "Just 14 percent of LGBT people voted for Donald Trump, exit poll reveals", "Out and Voting II: The Gay, Lesbian, and Bisexual Vote in Congressional Elections, 1990-1998", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Swing_vote&oldid=974770919, Articles lacking in-text citations from November 2012, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License, This page was last edited on 24 August 2020, at 22:39. A swing voter or floating voter is a voter who may not be affiliated with a particular political party (Independent) or who will vote across party lines. Most of this (6.7 of the 10 percentage points) is due to those white people who have only a high school education.
A Mormon suburbinite who is not republican is likewise more likely to be swing than a democratic voter. In her 2012 book The Swing Vote, Linda Killian divides the American swing vote into 4 factions: NPR Republicans, America First Democrats, the Facebook Generation, and Starbucks Moms and Dads. If it isn't young people, as I thought, then who are these independent voters that influence elections?
Seemingly big swings reported in short term polling results are rarely the product of people changing their minds as much as peculiar selection biases that crop up at different times in polls.
The second group is... outlier.
Swing voters are, of course, the voters who exhibit a very high level of intertemporal variance in a given election season. They are sometimes referred to as undecideds, undecided voters, or floating voter. Inspired by this comment in r/NoStupidQuestions. This suggests that lesbian and bisexual women may be more likely swing voters, at least over time, if not necessarily for any given election. ( Log Out / Now the threshhold for swing will vary depending on the group, of course, but my group puts it at 70%. or 50% libertarian and 50% republican?
Here are notes on methodology, and why neither of two candidate groups are straight libertarian. Lots of people claim open mindedness and independence.
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In an election, there are "certain" or "lock" votes, voters who are solidly behind or partisan to a particular candidate and will not consider changing their minds whatever the opposition says. There are also differences by state: "California GLB voters are more likely to identify as 'Independent' than are GLB voters nationally, and therefore have a greater potential to play the role of a swing vote in a close election.". This working paper by Andy Gelman, Doug Rivers, ad others is a truly excellent paper, even if their title is, perhaps, a bit misleading. ... For Sánchez, the first-time Hispanic voter … Republican validated voters reported choosing Trump by a margin of 92% to 4%, while Democrats supported Clinton by 94% to 5%. , "Overall, white voters are likely to swing the outcome of a national election by an average of 10 percentage points—voting more Democratic in elections Democrats win and more Republican in elections Republicans win," according to a 2008 report by the Democratic Leadership Council.
While 7 percent of poll respondents identified as African-American, only 2 percent of swing voters were African-American. " In the 2016 presidential election, people who identified as gay, lesbian, bisexual or transgender cast 78 percent of their votes for the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. Because the votes of swing voters are considered to be "up for grabs," candidates direct a fair proportion of campaign effort towards them, but they must also be concerned with voter turnout among their political base. In the Supreme Court of the United States the swing justice, such as Anthony Kennedy, essentially decides the overall outcome of the ruling during a split, which can mean highly impacting landmark decisions such as the effective decision of the President of the United States in the 2000 election was ultimately made by Kennedy in the Bush v. Gore case. I am a political analyst. The site may not work properly if you don't, If you do not update your browser, we suggest you visit, Press J to jump to the feed. Using and Abusing Statistics–Baseball Edition. but thats another discussion.)). just giving you a friendly reminder that you do need to post that source of yours at some point. Also let me be clear, not ALL outliers are swing voters, many truly do become partisan the other way, it is just more likely they are swing.
A black inner city voter who is not a democratic voter, is more likely to be a swing voter than a republican voter. While we like to assume low information voters are the uneducated, it simply isn't the case. Ventura was a third-party candidate; his opponents were seen as two weak major-party candidates, and this situation created many more swing voters than usual.
( Log Out / For example, on a court of seven judges, of which three are committed to each side of a case, the seventh judge may be seen as single-handedly deciding the case. Smidt uses a much narrower definition of what a swing voter is — someone who consistently votes, but switches back and forth between the two major parties. Loved your long winded answer, and I have a question or two for you; Did you discover a major "Swing voter" population that is made up of first time voters who don't know who to vote for? Such votes are usually sought after in election campaigns, since they can play a big role in determining the outcome. We then adjusted the size of those groups based on four years of population change. The second group is... outlier. Swing Voters and Demographics July 26, 2016 anon9999 This working paper by Andy Gelman, Doug Rivers, ad others is a truly excellent paper, even if their title is, perhaps, a bit misleading. we find low information voters spread pretty well across all demographics.
Latinos (12 percent of poll respondents) were represented more proportionately (13 percent of swing voters). Here are notes on methodology, and why neither of two candidate groups are straight libertarian. The ones who don't conform to their own demographic.
This phenomenon tends to get stronger the FEWER outliers there are.
New comments cannot be posted and votes cannot be cast, More posts from the NeutralPolitics community. between 70-90 we call them partisan, and 90+ we call loyal partisan. So finding a specific demographic becomes hard... clearly outliers exist from all demographics. Did you discover the person who I read comments from all the time - the lifelng republican who is fed up with republicans or the lifelong democrat who is fed up with the democrats? If someone has voted, over the course of multiple elections for the same party 90% or more of time, they are not really swing. Self descriptions are often not as helpful as we would like. Two interesting findings were lots of national-mercantilists (the polar opposite of libertarians) and a healthy dose of non-ideological green-libertarians.
Common examples of swing voters include "Reagan Democrats" (Democrats who voted for Republican Ronald Reagan in the 1980s) and "Clinton Conservatives" (Republicans who voted for Bill Clinton). These, more than mid or high info voters, tend to swing more, based on gut feelings, single issues, or even likability or name recognition. , In mid-term and presidential elections from 1992 to 2014, people who self-identified as "gay, lesbian, or bisexual" voted consistently "around 75 percent Democratic within a range of 67 to 81 percent.
A swing voter is someone who is either not affiliated with any party, or commonly crosses common party lines when voting. I've worked most of my professional career for a researcher focused on polarization in America. As he says, there isn't a single demographic. Swing voters are undecided about how they will vote.
and this can be adjusted for in a variety of ways.
They may be dissatisfied party members who are open to the idea of voting for other parties, or they could be officially registered as "independents" or simply people who have never had a strong affiliation with any political party and will vote depending on certain things that influence them: healthcare, benefits, election campaign, etc. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts.
, Among people who identify as gay and bisexual, men's support for Democratic candidates in the 1990s Congressional elections (held every two years from 1990 to 1998) was more consistent than women's.
Is there about 5% or so in the middle, regardless of what either major candidate says or does? This resulted in Jesse Ventura, the third-party candidate, winning the election.
This working paper by Andy Gelman, Doug Rivers, ad others, New Journalism, Old Journalism, Same Old Shtick in New Guise in Abusing the Data… – I am not really here…, Cheap Data vs. Good Data–The Case of Assessing Japanese Military Aviation before World War II.
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